The Pool

Tuesday, January 31, 2006

All TIme Record for most correct picks

Wrote another quickie program. I was wondering who holds the record for most correct picks in a tourney. The round doesnt matter. If you get the pick correct you get a point.

Turns out that in 1996 Dan got 50 of 63 picks correct. He picked 11 upsets and got 8 of them correct. SteveRevello got 48 that same year.

In 2001 Duke also got 48 correct and went 11/15 in upsets. After that theres a bunch of 47s and 46s.

Of the top 14 (46 and above) there is only one repeater. Formers mom hit 46 in 2001 and 2005.

And on the other side of the equasion, Jo only for 26 correct in 1997. She was 1 for 25 in upsets. BenByom got 27 in 2004 but he was like 3 at the time. 2/28 in upsets.

Best Upset Pct
10 picks - 7 correct Mary 1996, JohnHemming 1999, Auntie Dee 2005
11 picks - 11 correct Robbo 2005
12 picks - 9 Boog 2001
13 picks - 9 TheBeth 2001, Keith Rettler 2003, FormersMo2005
14 picks - 9 SteveRevello 1996, Scot 1999, Herb 2005
15 picks - 11 Duke 2001

14 Years and counting....

I threw together a page that puta everyone in a grid and then puts the place they finished in in there. It also has options for viewing the percent of people they beat that year. This makes it a little easier to compare how people finished in any given year. I did a quick compare of Mary and JohnnyT. Mary has beat JohnnyT for the last 14 years in a row.

Monday, January 30, 2006

Pool - 1990

1990 brought me to North Orchard living with Gus, Rico aqnd Tim. It was the first year a member of the Hemming family (Anne) made an appearance. The family has over 40 appearances in the pool.

I was still doing the standings primarily by using the individuals sheets. But in going through the Pool Archives, I found a standings sheet that shows scores at the end of the thursday games. There were 17 entries. Most of the standard pool contestants are there , Jeter, JohnnyT, Gus, Gee, Keith, Braz. But theres also some great historical figures, Doug Rammer, Tom Westrick, Rob Collins. At the end of the first day, Mark Bubon lead with 28 points.

UNLV won that year so these people actually have one more correct champ picked, Scot, Braz, Doug Rammer, me, Tim Melms, Tom Westrick, Steve Bersell and Rob Collins.

Scot Becker came out on top. Im not sure who 2nd and 3rd were. If you remember let me know.

Thursday, January 26, 2006

Editor

I just went back and read the old posts. Man I need an editor. For a guy who pretty much sits around all day on his computer, I sure can't type very well. The fact that my wife, the English teacher, can type like a thousand words a minute doesnt help. Im just assuming youll get the gist of everything despite my spelling ewrrors, non verb tense agreement (no idea what that means), typoes typos, and sentences where I being and then forget what I was talking about and then begin another topic right in the middle without stopping the sentence with some sort of punctuation like a comma or semicolon or even a conjunction (and, but and or, they'll get you pretty far) . Ok where was I.

In the Beginning.....

People ask, "How did the pool start..." Heres what I tell them. When I was a real little kid. Like 3 years old. I remember loving to watch basketball on TV. I didnt watch the game at all, I just watched the score that they had on the screen. I loved it when the numbers changed.

Yes, a big geek even back then. Then I turned 4 and started getting interested in girls. I forgot about hoops for the next 18 years or so. Then one day in March 1988, Braz and I were reading the Daily Cardinal. They had a NCAA Tourney contest. So we filled out our brackets and followed them though the tourney. I remember I picked Indiana to win. (They won in 1987 so I thought I had a sure thing. I was a Pool neophyte) I dont remember if Braz or I won but Im pretty sure we drank some beers at some point.

So the next year (which would be 1989) when the tourney rolled around we decided to expand. At the time it was Braz, Ross Krueger, Jeter and I in the pool. We called over to Tim Melms (who we playted the softball with the previous summer) and got him and Scot Becker and Gus and a couple others in. We then called over to Blake (also on the softball team) and got him crew. So we ended up with maybe 20 people. A good start. And so we started. Since Al Gore hadnt invented the Internet yet, all the scoring was done on the original entry sheets and a pink highlighter. Very low tech. I get all itchy just thinking about it.

The thing I remember most is Ross being right near the top. But whenever a game would end and I would go through all the sheets, he never could pass some guy named Pajewski. (A friend of Scots) So ROss would be running around the house muttering "Fuckin Pajewski" I still say this whenever Im in any sort of pool and cant seem to make any traction against someone.

"Juice" finally wrapped it up when Rumeal Robinson sunk 2 free throws to beat Seton Hall (Dicky Vs alma mater). In celebration I threw those sheets out. I really wish I had those back.

It happens every year...

Ahhhh the tourney.....It is the perfect sporting event. 3 weeks of non-stop action. (well it stops on mon-wed, but you spend those entire days talking about the action)

The first weekend. 16 games on thu and fri. Oh man. The 2 best days of the year. Of course your perfect bracket dies at about 1:30 on thursday when the first 5 goes down to a 12. But everybody is still in it after thursday. No work gets done after noon on thursday.

Friday morning is spent figuring out staring at your bracket trying to figure out how you failed to pick the 7-10 upset when the 7 was playing in their first tourney ever and the 10 was perennial contender from a BCS conference. It happens every year. Every year you promise yourself that the next year you will take your time with the brackets. Examine the matchups closely. Look at previous tourney experience. Next year you, of course, do none of that and just put Duke all the way through. No hope of getting any work done on friday at all. You leave at noon to meet your fellow poolers at a bar/restaurant to celebrate/commiserate.

Fridays games go by in a blur. A 2 is down to a 15 at the half but blows them off the court in the 2nd to win by 20. There was a real chance at a 13 over 4 but the 13 missed its throws down the stretch to let the 4 back in. A 9 goes over an 8 on a buzzer beater and half the place erupts and half cries in their beer.

By the end of the evening youre drained. Saturday and Sunday bring 8 games each bit your bracket is in shambles. None of your upsets hit. You lost one of your final 4 and 2 of your final 8. Your lungs are still full of "bar atmosphere"

The most you can do is sit on the couch and detoxify while you watch the games. If things roll just right, a 7 beats a 2 here or there, you get a luck 8 over 1 to knock out alot of other peoples champs you can hop right back in it. By sunday night youre doing the calculations.

You already saw at least part of 48 basketball games. Theres only 13 left. Who has the same picks as you for those games. Are any of those people ahead of you? You cant win but you can still finish in the money.

So theres a hope and a dream still alive.....

The Perfect Sport

College Basketball is the perfect sport. Consider...There is really 4 distinct parts to the season. Performing well in any one of them and holding your own in the others will get you into the fourth, the Tourney.

Part 1. Nov through Dec. This is non-conference play. You schedule up some cupcakes and maybe a couple tough home games. What you want to do here is go about 12-2. With that non-conf record, you can hit 8-8 or so in your conference play and still be a 20 win team which will pretty much always get you dancing if you're a BCS conf team.

Part 2. Ok so maybe part 1 didn't go so well. You ended up with a couple tough games on the road and maybe lost one at home. So you're now at .500. Now you're looking at the conference schedule to redeem yourself. Of its tougher than part 1, but if you perform well, say 10-6 with maybe a big marquee win on the road, youre still looking at maybe a 18-10 record. On the bubble but a definate chance to make it.

Part 3. Ok you blew the non conf schedule. You had some early conf season injurys and only put up 6 wins there. But you won 4 or your last 5 and are on a roll. You have no chance at an at large but you do have the conference tourney as your final gasp of hope.

So you have 3 distinct ways to get to the tourney.

Ahhhh the tourney.....It is the perfect sporting event. 3 weeks of non-stop action. (well it stops on mon-wed, but you spend those entire days talking about the action)

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

All Time Points

Mary leads the all time pool point category by a robust 84 points over Boog. I am 14 behind Boog in third and Braz is 50 points behind me in 4th.

Mary averages 144 points per pool for her 15 pools. Boog is next at 138.4
John Hemming is 3rd at 137.83.

As usual Gary is ready to break into the top as soon as he hits the 50% participation mark which will happen this year. Gary is at 140.86.

Monday, January 23, 2006

5 second rule

I was just eating some of those cheese nip crackers that have the peanut butter between them Well I accidentally dropeed one of them. I quickly dove for the fallen morsel and picked up within the alloted 5 seconds and then ate it.

Note: The 5 second rule does NOT apply is you drop something in the toilet.

Thoughts on Point Progression

The point progression will determine how many upsets you should pick. If you're in an exponential pool, ie the points per round go 1-2-4-8-16-32, you pretty much have to hit your champ.

A 32 point miss is just too much to overcome. The champion in this method is worth the same as the entire first round. This is fundamentally wrong as picking the champ is much easier that hitting the entire first round which has never been done in the history of mankind as far as I know. The advantage here is to the lucky picker. Jan from accounting can pick Oklahoma State because her dog is from Oklahoma and win the whle thing cause she's the only one to get 32 points in round 6.

A linear progression, 1-2-3-4-5-6 or multiples thereof, you can miss your champ and make up for it with a couple round 3 hits. This method gives the advantage to the smarter picker and this is the correct way to run a pool.

So tell those exponential pool runners to cram it.

What is An Upset?

Everybody talks about upsets in the NCAA Tournament. Most people think its just a higher seed beating a lower seed. Not correct. In order to be a true upset, the seed difference has to be at least 2.

A 3 beating a 2 is not an upset. A 8 beating a 1 is. In fact a 4 beating a 1 is. 3 over 1, upset, 5 over 4, no upset. The larger the difference the bigger the upset.

An exception may be made if a low #2 beats a high #1 as the #1s tend to be disproportionately better than a #2 vs the small amount a #3 might be better than a #4.

In polite conversation it is permissible to refer to a 3 beating a 2 as an upset even though we know different.

Round Averages

This may or may not be interesting. Who has done the best in each round on average, in Pool history? Well lets find out.....

To be included leaders must have participated in at least half the Pools. (8 out of 15)

Round 1:
John Hemming (12 pools) 48.5 points
Whip (9) 48.22
Jeff (15) 48

Round 2:
Boog (15) 38..93
Jeff (15) and SteveRossa (15) 38.13
Gary Braz in 7 pools averages 40 points per round 2.

Round 3:
Mary (15) 26.8
Dan (11) 26.18
Boog (15) 26
Gary is at 29.14

Round 4:
Duke(9) 19.56
Mary (15) 16.53
Jeff (15) 16
Gary is at 17.14

Round 5:
Mary (15) 10
John Hemming (12) 9.17
Bill Sill (9) 8.89
The Beth is also at 10 for 7 Pools

Round 6:
Mary 5.6
Steve Hemming 5.54
Dan 4.36
Debbie is at 5.14 for 7 pools.

Again, that may or may not be interesting

This Years Seeds

The Tournament Committee has issued its seeding for theis years Pool.
After winning in 2003 and finishing 3rd last year, Keith Rettler is ready to break through again and is the #1 seed.

Last years Champ (and 2 time overall winner) Steve Hemming busted out with 170 points and gets this years second seed.

And The Pool wouldnt be The Pool with out Mary being seeded somewhere int he top 3. Every time I look at the all time stats Im amazed. From 1994 through 2004 (thats 11 years) she finished in single digits 10 times. That includes a win and 3 other money finishes. SHe also has three 4th place endings. Just amazing. She figures to bounce bad from her 39th place finish last year.

1. Keith
2. Stevie
3. Mary

Sunday, January 22, 2006

The Pool Blog

As on always one on the cutting edge of technology, I am pleased to announce the blog for this (and subsequent) years NCAA Pool. Ill be posting reviews of past Pools, tips, mocking and disparaging comments and other info which I know you wont be able to do without.
Feel free to comment or post your own entries. Selection Sunday is March 12th.